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The
old football saying goes, "When you throw the ball, one of
three things can happen, and two of them are bad." They're wise
words that many NFL coaches swear by, and to hear the way the coaches
talk every week about needing to |
establish
the "running game" early, you might think they actually
practice that mantra. A close look at the statistics through week 6
proves otherwise.
Fifteen
different NFL quarterbacks have thrown for more than 1,200 yards
through week 6, and only a handful of those have actually played six
games (actually five of them have played six games). So five of those
quarterbacks are averaging at least 200 yards per game. The other 10
are averaging at least 240 yards per game. Either way you look at it,
all of these quarterbacks are on pace to register the coveted
3,000-yard season.
Fifteen
quarterbacks on pace to break 3,000 passing yards in a season. It's
unheard of in the NFL, and it has as much to do with the true change
in philosophy as it does with the lack of depth at both the running
back and defensive back positions. OK, so defensive back is easy to
understand, right? If so many quarterbacks are throwing for 3,000
yards in a season, obviously the defensive backs are mediocre at best.
But
I submit there is another reason for this oddity. The lack of depth
at running back is a serious concern. And not just because there
isn't the wealth of quality as before, but that the wealth of quality
isn't running as deep or as far onto the bench as before. Second and
third string guys are simply not anywhere as good as some of the
first string guys--so when a team that relies on a guy like Duce
Staley (as Philadelphia has done all season) loses their biggest
rushing yardage producer, they look to the "bench" and
lower their heads in dismay.
Consider
this lack of depth the reason that teams like Denver, the Jets and
others are playing their first string RBs despite lingering injuries.
The fact of the matter is, without them, they have no running game at
all. Look at the statistics for proof. Generally speaking, we
consider a RB successful if he has earned 100 yards in a game.
However, through week 6 of the NFL, only TWO RBs are averaging 100
yards per game. Granted, that's a pretty lofty standard to meet on a
consistent basis, but consider that the difference between the number
2 and number 3 RBs in rushing in the NFL thus far is 100 yards (in
essence, a full game). That's quite a gap for players that are among
the leaders in this category--especially after only six weeks of play.
So,
in the absence of the running game, NFL coaches are throwing caution
to the wind--literally--and it's creating a deluge of parity among
the quarterbacks. If 15 QBs finish this season with over 3,000 yards
passing, you can bet there will be an off-season scramble to find the
best defensive backs and running backs. Don't be surprised to see
that position at the top of next year's draft.
As
usual, the following picks are completely unscientific, and much
like the Reuters/MSNBC polls of the presidential race, they are
statistically insignificant. In other words, don't blame me if you
use my picks to bet with and lose a bundle.
San
Diego at Buffalo: When a team is 0-6, there starts to develop a
hunger for a victory that grows and grows. San Diego is feeling that
hunger big time. QB Jim Harbaugh should be slightly more at ease
after getting a game in this system under his belt. The Bills, after
three straight losses, look like easy prey. Pick: San Diego
Oakland
at Kansas City: No team in the NFL has a home winning percentage
that is as good as the Chiefs' over the last decade. The red hot
Raiders hope to put a dent in that home field advantage, but
something tells me the biggest dramatic moments of this game will be
the "lovers spat" between Raiders QB Rich Gannon and coach
Jon Gruden on the Oakland sideline. Pick: Kansas City
Atlanta
at St. Louis: It was bad enough when the Falcons got their asses
kicked in their own backyard by the lightning-fast Rams, but now they
have to travel to St. Louis for likely more of the same. Isn't there
a point where this kind of punishment starts to feel like S&M?
The Falcons don't look like they're excited for it, either. Pick: St. Louis
Carolina
at New Orleans: Finally, the Saints offense clicked last week as
QB Jeff Blake threw for 217 yards to complement RB Ricky Williams'
128 yards on the ground in clocking their second consecutive win this
season. Carolina is coming off a hot win at home against Seattle.
Pick: New Orleans
Dallas
at New York Giants: The Cowboys got a much needed week off last
week, and hopefully they've corrected the offensive woes that have
limited their attack all season. Defensively, they'll have a handful
with the thunder-and-lightning combo of the Giant's RBs Ron Dayne and
Tiki Barber. Pick: New York
Cincinnati
at Pittsburgh: Though they still haven't done it, the Bengals
actually view this game as winnable, if Akili Smith can step up and
play as he did against Tennessee, and if Corey Dillon can survive an
entire game. The Steelers, however, are coming off their biggest game
of the season in which they upset the previously undefeated New York
Jets. Pick: Pittsburgh
Baltimore
at Washington: The Redskins suffered another close call in
Philadelphia last week where they squeaked out a 17-14 victory.
Unfortunately, the high-priced defense gave up 201 total yards to
Eagle RB Duce Staley. The Ravens are ruling the roost atop the AFC
Central after sweeping the season series with Jacksonville by winning
in Jacksonville last week, and are viewed as the "team to
beat" in all of the AFC. Pick: Baltimore
Cleveland
at Denver: Once again, the Browns squandered a very winnable
game last week in Arizona, and their young team seems to have a
problem with focus. Their silver lining this week is the potential to
do serious harm to Broncos QB Brian Griese and RB Terrell Davis (both
of whom are playing injured). The Broncos needn't think, however,
that this will be an easy win. Pick: Denver
New
York Jets at New England: The Patriots have put together a nice
little winning streak, after a victory last week at home against the
Colts. The Jets looked flat in their embarrassing loss to Pittsburgh,
and need to seriously regroup if they hope to bounce back. The Jets
would love to spoil Belichick's streak with a loss at home. Pick: New England
Indianapolis
at Seattle: After a humiliating loss to the Panthers, Seahawks
coach Mike Holmgren may be eating some humble pie for benching the
experienced QB John Kitna (who directed the team to the playoffs last
season) in favor of unknown and unproven Brock Huard. The Colts need
a big game from RB Edgerrin James to bounce back from a loss to the
Patriots. Pick: Indianapolis
San
Francisco at Green Bay: The Packers can't seem to decide if
they're going to win or lose games this season. QB Brett Favre seems
to have lost his "comeback" magic. The 49ers are reaping
the benefits of a ground game, thanks to league leader Charlie Garner
(609 yards). Terrell "Sideshow Bob" Owens is coming off of
a 12-catch, 176-yard game against Oakland in that loss, and he now
leads the NFC in receptions. Pick: San Francisco
Philadelphia
at Arizona: Jake Plummer enjoyed modest success against the
defenseless Cleveland Browns, but the Eagles are something altogether
different. The Eagles signed veteran free agent RB Amp Lee after
losing Duce Staley for the season following surgery to repair an
injury to his foot. This could prove a costly loss for the Eagles.
Pick: Arizona
Minnesota
at Chicago: They don't do it pretty, but they do it. That's all
that can be said for the undefeated Vikings, who won a sloppy game at
home against Tampa Bay Monday night. Chicago, still struggling on
offense, could prove to be the big spoiler for Vikings QB Daunte
Culpepper (my "homeboy"). Pick: Minnesota
Jacksonville
at Tennessee: Four weeks ago, this was billed as a potential
revenge match for the Jaguars, who sought to avenge a sweep by the
Titans last season (including a heart-breaking shellacking in the
playoffs). But now, the Jaguars are sharing the cellar with the
second-year expansion Browns, and the Titans are lost somewhere in
the middle of the NFL pack, after narrowly escaping with victories
against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. Pick: Tennessee
The
Detroit Lions, Miami Dolphins and Tampa Bay Buccaneers all have bye weeks.
Last
week's picks: 7-7 (overall 21-19--OK, so I'm not doing so hot--BITE me!)
Jimmy
The Roman, a
salute to the deceased sports journalist "Jimmy the Greek,"
is a periodic columnist at YourMVP.net
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